Mimic Unlocked - Stretch Goal Finances - 23 hour referrer analytics
Mimic Box Unlocked, More Dice at $100,000
We hit $80,000, so now Rob needs to make more box art. He has discussed his idea and plan with us internally, and I think that it will be incredible.
We will now work toward unlocking 2 additional dungeon dice at $100,000 of funding to be included exclusive to Kickstarter backers.
The Anatomy Of The Cost Of A Stretch Goal
So, if I say that a new hero costs $0.02 per card and $175 for artwork, that doesn't sound like a lot in the scheme of things right?
Therefore, how can the project barely be setup to make money on an increase of $5,000 to get one hero? If you bear with the math, then I will explain...
First, that is raw cost, and I am assuming an increase across 10,000 units. So, now we are looking at $375 of raw cost.
With an assumed profit of $2 per unit shipped (yes after all expenses this is conservative, but about right), then we can know that we need to have an additional 375/2 units. Or an additional 187.5 units to move.
FYI - I price shipping premiums as close to the actual expected cost as possible, so the expected profit per unit remains the same.
At last I checked, the average pledge per unit was $18.15 per copy.
So, we multiply - 187.5 x 18.15 = $3,403 of new pledges to cover the cost of the additional hero card. Everything after that starts to move into the "profit" line (which isn't actually profit, but would buy extra inventory).
So, $1,597 would be "profitable", which is about 88 copies, or $176 of "profit" which really just buys more inventory. Pretty unimpressive for a $5,000 increase to be able to keep $176, so why do I do it?
There are 2 main reasons, the selfish reason and the un-selfish reason:
- Unselfish - I want to give backers as much stuff as possible so that they get the best possible value.
- Selfish - I want to get as many backers as possible so that they will share the project and bring us into more impressive pledge levels and copies to deliver.
I believe that the vocal power of several thousand people together (now 4,057, up from 4,010 when I started this update) speaking in unison is extremely powerful.
I believe in the vocal power of the crowd, and I hope that the generosity will translate into the use of that vocal power later.
Like has been said to me, what are you crazy? MAYBE, MAYBE...
Daily Referrer Anlaytics Analysis
At one point in time early in the project I mentioned to my wife how I would like to know the source of new pledges day to day. She said something like, "the get that information". So, I started keeping track of the number of backers in each referrer block from Kickstarter's analytics on a daily basis.
In the last 23 hours, 706 total backers have come from various sources (sources from Kickstarter in bold), including:
- Direct Traffic - 337 - This is the biggest jump in any day since I started tracking this, I believe that a large percentage came from Project Eternity with their update mention. Most of the rest from BGG with the new contest
- [KS] Tabletop Games (Discover) - 80 - We continue to rank well for popularity in this section and are getting some discovery love.
- Boardgamegeek.com - 80 - This is on pace with normal, so I suspect that some of the uptick in the direct traffic measured is due to the contest.
- [KS] Search - 51 - This is inline with before, so it seems that while the word of mouth and brand spread of Dungeon Roll is increasing, it has not spilled into this search.
- Embedded Widget - 30 - Much of this is probably from Dungeon Roll on BGG.
- Kicktraq - 21 - With out skin ad on there, and now with the direct link, we can see the increase here.
- Kickstarter User Profiles - 10
- Facebook - 8
- Forums.obsidian.net - 8 - This shows the ancillary measurement of the PE update effect.
- Twitter - 5
- Reddit - 4 - While the AMA was fun, so much for driving backers...
Remember, the numbers above are not totals, but rather increases in the last 23 hours. Overall, this is a big jump over the previous day, and I hope that this new pace continues.
However, I do think that much is coming from the effect of the mention on Project Eternity and the contest now live on Board Game Geek. Which means that we are probably looking at what would be a short term (and very welcome) spike in backers rather than a systemic increase.
As a matter of fact, I have seen the average increase in pledges per hour drop off significantly back to the level we had before for this time of day. We are back to looking at something more in line with $400 an hour. Which further shows this to be a one-time spike event.
Gonna be the best day yet:
The Trending Curve Reverses
While the trending curve for funding on Kicktraq has reversed course thanks to this large spike, I do fear that it is an anomaly as opposed to a trend.
Which means that we would not be ending close to the current trend which is says we are going to $209,000, but that it would be lower. Which means that we are a far ways off from the $250,000 needed to get the custom oversized D10 roll down die.
No need to panic yet, but we might need to scramble at the end of the project to make sure that can happen.
That Is Great, But We Want Artwork!
Me too... Let me get back to cracking the whip on that Ryan!