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A vicious dragon is out there... Assemble your party at the tavern... Slay the dragon! Grab the treasure! OH GLORIOUS GLORY!!!
A vicious dragon is out there... Assemble your party at the tavern... Slay the dragon! Grab the treasure! OH GLORIOUS GLORY!!!
10,877 backers pledged $250,070 to help bring this project to life.

Mimic Unlocked - Stretch Goal Finances - 23 hour referrer analytics

Posted by Michael Mindes (Creator)

Mimic Box Unlocked, More Dice at $100,000

We hit $80,000, so now Rob needs to make more box art. He has discussed his idea and plan with us internally, and I think that it will be incredible.

We will now work toward unlocking 2 additional dungeon dice at $100,000 of funding to be included exclusive to Kickstarter backers.

The Anatomy Of The Cost Of A Stretch Goal

So, if I say that a new hero costs $0.02 per card and $175 for artwork, that doesn't sound like a lot in the scheme of things right?

Therefore, how can the project barely be setup to make money on an increase of $5,000 to get one hero?  If you bear with the math, then I will explain...

First, that is raw cost, and I am assuming an increase across 10,000 units. So, now we are looking at $375 of raw cost.

With an assumed profit of $2 per unit shipped (yes after all expenses this is conservative, but about right), then we can know that we need to have an additional 375/2 units.  Or an additional 187.5 units to move.

FYI - I price shipping premiums as close to the actual expected cost as possible, so the expected profit per unit remains the same.

At last I checked, the average pledge per unit was $18.15 per copy.

So, we multiply - 187.5 x 18.15 = $3,403 of new pledges to cover the cost of the additional hero card. Everything after that starts to move into the "profit" line (which isn't actually profit, but would buy extra inventory).

So, $1,597 would be "profitable", which is about 88 copies, or $176 of "profit" which really just buys more inventory. Pretty unimpressive for a $5,000 increase to be able to keep $176, so why do I do it?

There are 2 main reasons, the selfish reason and the un-selfish reason:

  • Unselfish - I want to give backers as much stuff as possible so that they get the best possible value.
  • Selfish - I want to get as many backers as possible so that they will share the project and bring us into more impressive pledge levels and copies to deliver.

I believe that the vocal power of several thousand people together (now 4,057, up from 4,010 when I started this update) speaking in unison is extremely powerful.

I believe in the vocal power of the crowd, and I hope that the generosity will translate into the use of that vocal power later.

Like has been said to me, what are you crazy?  MAYBE, MAYBE...


Daily Referrer Anlaytics Analysis

At one point in time early in the project I mentioned to my wife how I would like to know the source of new pledges day to day. She said something like, "the get that information". So, I started keeping track of the number of backers in each referrer block from Kickstarter's analytics on a daily basis.

In the last 23 hours, 706 total backers have come from various sources (sources from Kickstarter in bold), including:

  • Direct Traffic - 337 - This is the biggest jump in any day since I started tracking this, I believe that a large percentage came from Project Eternity with their update mention.  Most of the rest from BGG with the new contest
  • [KS] Tabletop Games (Discover) - 80 - We continue to rank well for popularity in this section and are getting some discovery love.
  • Boardgamegeek.com - 80 - This is on pace with normal, so I suspect that some of the uptick in the direct traffic measured is due to the contest.
  • [KS] Search - 51 - This is inline with before, so it seems that while the word of mouth and brand spread of Dungeon Roll is increasing, it has not spilled into this search.
  • Embedded Widget - 30 - Much of this is probably from Dungeon Roll on BGG.
  • Kicktraq - 21 - With out skin ad on there, and now with the direct link, we can see the increase here.
  • Kickstarter User Profiles - 10 
  • Facebook - 8
  • Forums.obsidian.net - 8 - This shows the ancillary measurement of the PE update effect.
  • Twitter - 5
  • Reddit - 4 - While the AMA was fun, so much for driving backers...

Remember, the numbers above are not totals, but rather increases in the last 23 hours.  Overall, this is a big jump over the previous day, and I hope that this new pace continues.

However, I do think that much is coming from the effect of the mention on Project Eternity and the contest now live on Board Game Geek. Which means that we are probably looking at what would be a short term (and very welcome) spike in backers rather than a systemic increase.

As a matter of fact, I have seen the average increase in pledges per hour drop off significantly back to the level we had before for this time of day.  We are back to looking at something more in line with $400 an hour.  Which further shows this to be a one-time spike event.

Gonna be the best day yet:

The Trending Curve Reverses

While the trending curve for funding on Kicktraq has reversed course thanks to this large spike, I do fear that it is an anomaly as opposed to a trend.

Which means that we would not be ending close to the current trend which is says we are going to $209,000, but that it would be lower. Which means that we are a far ways off from the $250,000 needed to get the custom oversized D10 roll down die.

No need to panic yet, but we might need to scramble at the end of the project to make sure that can happen.

That Is Great, But We Want Artwork!

Me too...  Let me get back to cracking the whip on that Ryan!

Comments

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    1. Alan
      Superbacker
      on

      Found the contest!
      http://www.boardgamegeek.com/contests/dungeonroll

      And I want to add another voice in support of differently colouring the Dungeon and Hero dice.

    2. richard weckermann on

      Alternate colored die the best idea out there, as many gamer's have gaming group's or prefer to play with someone rather than solo. I am in for 6 games and intend to play with our gaming group such that the first person who reaches a higher level than the rest of the players and is alive, is winning and can wait till some one passes them or keep going.
      No answer on that BGG contest yet eh.

    3. Mattimao on

      Thanks! We were playing it right. :)

    4. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      @Mattimao - Yes, fighter = cleric means that they are inter-changable in both directions. The ultimate on the novice is side is to use as if you were a fighter or cleric, yes.

      So, a one time opportunity to be used as either of those faces.

    5. Mattimao on

      @Michael- Thanks for the info!
      Quick rules question.
      On the card for the Paladin, does the [Fighter] = [Cleric] mean that a Fighter die could be used as a Cleric an vice versa?
      also - does the ultimate mean that the player character can be used as a die character for one turn?

    6. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      My apologies for not actively responding to the comments on this update, I am reading them, I just have so much to do!

      And I am glad you are enjoying the explanations and transparency.

    7. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      @Mattimao - There are more stretch rewards between here and the custom D10 - I just wanted to make sure that it was out there as a target. We do have dice upgrades and more cards coming, and we continue to work on heroes, I just don't know if any would be ready to do as late stretch goals.

      Seth is estimating that it will take at least 3 hours of his personal time to get each hero fully developed and correct.

    8. Mattimao on

      ...goal for the D10 is sort of a weak ONE.

      oops. :)

      A goblin stole the last word in that first line.

    9. Mattimao on

      I also feel that the goal for the D10 is sort of a weak .
      The idea to upgrade the dice somehow or maybe give us even more heroes is better.
      I know...
      Alternate art of the Paladin used on a new Hero!
      A card for the Dragon that could only be used on a Dragon in levels 6 and up.
      Trap cards that the Dungeon Lord can play on Heroes!
      A Dungeon map. Like what they have for the Munchkin game with the levels printed on it. That way you could keep track of where you are and have some cool terrain. Plus the whole thing could be made of cards so it could go in the chest.
      Ooh... one side could have a trap on it and the other could be trap free!
      In my humble opinion any of these would add more long term value than a D10.
      They would probably be cheaper too! ;)

    10. Aaron on

      @Seth - I'd rather have a shirt with a dragon and the word dungeon on it ;)

    11. Matthew Tackett on

      Thank you again for the level of transparency you've provided to your backers which should also be of great benefit to future Kickstarters.

    12. The Redheaded Pharmacist
      Superbacker
      on

      I too would love to see different colored dice. It would add some variety to the game. Mix things up and come up with something visually pleasing. My favorite part of my D-Day Dice KS package was the speckled dice they added. Something similar for this game would look great! This project is going well and gaining more interest by the day. Congrats and good luck for the remainder of the KS campaign!

    13. Derek Robertson on

      I like the different color dice idea, then if you had two sets you could add a die from the other set to roll a "mini boss" per level, which you would need its specific party die to take down :D

    14. SethJaffee on

      @Aaron - I talked Michael into making TMG t-shirts in time for Gen Con a couple of years ago (see this image: http://cf.geekdo-images.com/images/pic1059409_t.jpg), and while I wear one often and love it, they were a disaster as far as sales are concerned. It seemed like we would have had trouble GIVING them away. I probably have one at home I can sell you if you're interested...

    15. richard weckermann on

      I agree the 250k mark will not be made, mainly because who wants a D10? We want more Heroes, more game die, more optional rules.
      Ya what BGG contest???

    16. Alan
      Superbacker
      on

      Wait, what BGG contest???

    17. Ryan Dusek on

      Michael,

      Thanks for the breakdown in the math for the stretch goals. I was curious as to how the publisher determines the cost levels for stretch goals against the cost of the goal prize. This was very informative and interesting.

    18. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      @Mark - I have done bags before. It was a nightmare.

      @Frank - The KS boxes will be mimic boxes, I can't think of a way to separate that right now, maybe I will come up with something.

    19. Capn Frank
      Superbacker
      on

      So do we get our choice of Mimic or Chest box? Or if we order two can we get one of each?

    20. Mark Fadden
      Superbacker
      on

      OK watched a vid review that did a good job showing play. For 15 bucks this looks like a very playable game. I may have missed something somewhere but I'd definitely like to see different color dice for party and dungeon. I always like to see KS unique things so special colors for people who supported the KS would be a good one in my opinion. The guy in the vid mentioned putting the treasures in a bag rather than the chest. Frankly that suggestion alone was enough to get me to up my pledge for a second set. Even if the bag doesn't come in the set. That makes is a very portable travel game to me and even goes in a backpack pouch for camping/hiking (or bugging out...) So a KS exclusive bag with possibly a stencil on it is also a huge plus in my opinion. I would like to see those treasures a bit bigger, possibly even approaching the size of a pog. The ability to effect other players (suggested in the video) would be a good expansion but could also be covered by house rules (the easy one comes to mind, that dragon bait could be played on yourself or could be played on someone else...)

    21. Missing avatar

      Jonathan Passmore on

      @Michael Mindes - Yeah, they have a podcast, but the main draw is the video reviews. You should check them out, they are hilarious.

    22. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      @Aaron - Yep, shirts could be a good profit center, for another project after this one, but not in this one.

    23. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      @Jonathan - Cool, thanks... They do a podcast right?

    24. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      @Christoph - Of course, art will be revealed shortly after I see it.

    25. Daniel Palmer on

      Love the behind the scene look. Keep up the great work!

    26. Missing avatar

      Jonathan Passmore on

      In regard to your referrer info, I heard about this through my favorite review site Shut Up & Sit Down (shutupshow.com), but clicked through and backed it from a boardgamegeek.com link. Just thought I would throw some SU&SD love out there...

    27. Aaron on

      shirts are a good profit center though. 100 shirts isn't too much, even for 2-3 colors. when i did the band thing at 100 shirts they were about $7 each and we were selling them for $15 (no shipping costs involved though. I'm sure if you did 500 or 1000 you could get them for $5 per or so (it's been forever since i've priced them).

      extras go in the trunk to gencon or up on your webstore, but that's the kind of thing that's easy to sell in person. I mean it's got a dragon on it and everything.

    28. Christoph Wagner on

      Wow, that was fast with the statistics post :D
      Interesting read:)

      Any chance on seeing box sketches when some stuff is done?

    29. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      Ohhh, add-ons add a level of complexity to fulfillment that I am not prepared to deal with, especially with 5,000+ packages.

    30. Sarah Reed
      Superbacker
      on

      If you can think of any add-ons to do, I'm sure you'd get a lot of people increasing their pledges. You've already said no to shirts and coins, as you'll do those later, but what about other printed items like posters or coasters? I wouldn't mind Dunegon Roll coasters for my group's drinks while we play. :-D

    31. Marshall Jansen on

      I think this Kickstarter has been amazing! It's already past what I hoped it would bring in and is still going strong. I was looking at the proposed stretch goals, and we need an extra 20k to get 2 extra dice... which seems like $1 per die for 10k units, which is reasonable.

      Given that, I'd like to propose an add-on that I don't believe has been mentioned yet... Different colored Party and Dungeon Dice. If the base set comes with Black Dungeon and White Party dice, or if it comes with 'cool mottled' dice for both od those, either way I'd love to see an addon where I could pick up Dungeon and Party dice in different colors. (Beige and dark purple, for instance).

      I think that the different colored dice as an add-on would be useful for people that are interested in making the game work better for larger groups, as even on a small table you could exuberantly roll two sets of dice (with two active adventurers and two active dungeons) and not worry about inter-mixing the dice.

      I know I'd be happier with a $15 add-on for different color dice than I would be for a $15 add-on for a second full game, especially if the add-on dice were an exclusive color-pair that wouldn't be repeated.

    32. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      Of course, increasing the funding now (up to something like $250,000), makes all of those numbers more impressive and by 2014 I could by continuously printing lots of Dungeon Roll and peeling off some profit to pay for continuous content creation for Dungeon Roll, and even keep some for myself.

      This project is all about getting Dungeon Roll to where it can go rather than adding to the operational budget of TMG.

    33. Jorge Duran on

      Cant wait to see what the mimic box will look like! now for +2 Dice!!!

    34. Michael Mindes 35-time creator on

      Yeah, right now, at $82,000 it means that approximately I would be able to print 10,000 copies with no cost out of pocket and deliver 5,000 to backers.

      Then, once the remaining 5,000 sell through (quickly) I would probably cover my booth costs for GenCon (with the extra money as opposed through selling through distribution) and another printing of 10,000 to continue building the long-term support for Dungeon Roll.

    35. Mark Fadden
      Superbacker
      on

      I'm glad to think you have this level of handle on all this but even more glad to know I don't. The bottom line to me isn't all this calculation it's simply to look at the game, see how it plays, see what I get for my pledge and to know that I'm pretty darn confident that for my pledge I'm going to get at least that much enjoyment out of it and cash I put into it. Looking at this KS, that's pretty easy to see.

      So bottom line to me is, keep coming up with cool stuff, keep your word and do roll this game out sending me the stuff you promised. Feel free to make some profit on this, after all it's a business venture not unconditional love from my mother. And I wish you all the luck in succeeding here and with your company as a whole!

    36. Aaron on

      I agree, the 2 cost breakdown updates are pretty informative.

      i think part of the problem is people are used to kickstarters from deep pockets or high profit margin items (like paying full retail on zombicide, where they start with $40-60 to spare per backer and can afford for freebies. and where shipping as a % of total cost is a lot lower.

    37. I'm Out
      Superbacker
      on

      LOVE the mimic box idea!

    38. Daniel Vance on

      These updates always make me smile. Thanks

    39. Carlos S. on

      More people should post their Kickstarter economics, it helps supporters understand the reasons behind pricing, which sometimes they think it's done just to maximize profit.