You are correct, if the game were to just clear the mark and come with what we have listed in the box right now, I would expect to see the game far sooner than one year.
However most of our stretch goals will require another round of art and possibly even some mini sculpting... did I just let that slip? If that is the case, and we hope that it is, then we can't go to press until we have all of that done. Jonathan Elliott is lined up to continue on any new art, but however you slice it, it does take time.
Living in Columbus, its a serious goal to have the game in time for Origins next year but the art, the print cues, the ocean delivery and customs are all variable that have to be built into the estimate.