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Cubes don't roll so well. This 12-sided die is numbered 1-6 twice. It is rounder, and balanced. It's the iconic d6 evolved -> d(2x6).
6,916 backers pledged $133,495 to help bring this project to life.

3) Added Pledge Tier: RANDOM ROLL II

Posted by Matt Fleming (Creator)
7 likes

Due to the popularity of the original RANDOM ROLL (which sold out), we have added another, though less generous and more risky, option.

Pledge $10

RANDOM ROLL II: We will roll 4 dice, and you will get the number of dice that come up (4-24, with an average of 14). Includes US S&H.

I plan to video all rolls in one sitting so you know that I am being honest (I will read out everyone's initials before each roll, in the order that you pledged).

Dean Martin, Brett Turner, and 5 more people like this update.

Comments

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    1. Arthur Levesque
      Superbacker
      on

      Very good, Landon; but if all rolls less than eight are discarded and rerolled, the numbers change slightly:

      Total - Occurrences - Percent
      8 35 2.78%
      9 56 4.44%
      10 80 6.34%
      11 104 8.25%
      12 125 9.91%
      13 140 11.10%
      14 146 11.58%
      15 140 11.10%
      16 125 9.91%
      17 104 8.25%
      18 80 6.34%
      19 56 4.44%
      20 35 2.78%
      21 20 1.59%
      22 10 0.79%
      23 4 0.32%
      24 1 0.08%

      You have a 21.81% chance of getting less than 12 dice.
      You have a 9.91% chance of getting 12 dice.
      You have a 68.28% chance of getting more than 12 dice.

    2. Sean on

      Thanks Landon.

      Cris and Kevin I got 12, because I picked the middle number on the die 3, and rolled it 4 times. Granted that is a very rough way to guess at it. I don't know why you both are saying two dice rolls when it states he will roll 4 dice. Really what we have to take into account if we want to guess the probability of the outcome is less what is on the face of the die and more the combination to make a given number, ie to get an outcome of four you have to roll one, four times, but to get an outcome of eight you could roll four two's, a four/two/one/one or five/one/one/one, all of those combinations would give you eight, so you have a higher probability of getting that outcome since more numbers combinations will yield it. Looking at Landon's table it looks like that is how his probabilities were created, but it has been some time since I have done statistics and I also don't want to figure out all possible combinations for each total.

    3. Maken X
      Superbacker
      on

      The video idea sounds like a lot of fun. It may become viral just like all other lesser non-mathematical videos on youtube. :D

    4. Missing avatar

      Landon Kryger on

      Here's the probability tables for all 24 outcomes. There are 6^4 = 1296 possible outcomes.

      Total - Occurrences - Percent
      4 1 0.08%
      5 4 0.31%
      6 10 0.77%
      7 20 1.54%
      8 35 2.7%
      9 56 4.32%
      10 80 6.17%
      11 104 8.02%
      12 125 9.65%
      13 140 10.8%
      14 146 11.27%
      15 140 10.8%
      16 125 9.65%
      17 104 8.02%
      18 80 6.17%
      19 56 4.32%
      20 35 2.7%
      21 20 1.54%
      22 10 0.77%
      23 4 0.31%
      24 1 0.08%

      You have a 23.92% chance of getting less than 12 dice.
      You have a 9.65% chance of getting 12 dice.
      You have a 66.44% chance of getting more than 12 dice.

    5. Criswell The Tiny Epic Weatherman on

      As far as the video idea goes, yes!!!! Oded Sharon did a 50 minute video personally thanking every one of almost 1000 Bolt Riley backers. I clocked in at about minute 40.

    6. Criswell The Tiny Epic Weatherman on

      I think Matt's math is right and Sean's is wrong. 4d6 would roll a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 24. With the most likely roll of 2d6 being 7, it seems to me that the most likely roll of 2x2d6 would be 7+7=14. I'm not sure how Sean got 12, but I would like to see his analysis. Any and every time I've been proven wrong, I recant and backpedal.

    7. Kevin Dexter on

      @Sean The average rolling a 6 sided die is actually 3.5. This is because it is equally possible to roll the numbers 1-6. The sum of 1-6 is 21, which we then divide by the number of options (6), giving 3.5. Then we take 3.5 * 4 = 14. I'd draw up a distribution sheet, but its a bit more challenging to do with 4 dice than with 2. You can think of it as a bigger form of rolling 2 dice though:
      1 2 3 4 5 6
      1| 2 3 4 5 6 7
      2| 3 4 5 6 7 8
      3| 4 5 6 7 8 9
      4| 5 6 7 8 9 10
      5| 6 7 8 9 10 11
      6| 7 8 9 10 11 12
      3.5 * 2 = 7, and 7 appears most often on the above table of rolling 2 d6 dice
      Hope that helps clear it up!

    8. Sean on

      as someone who bid in the random roll 1, I am fine with you using a random number generator (but I am not sure if one exists that would act like a dice roll).

      Someone can correct me if I am wrong but the average should be 12 dice since that would be the median number on four rolls (3 being the middle number of the dice times 4 rolls), of course someone may get 4 ones or 4 sixes but likely hood would be on true dice rolls it would average around 12.

      maybe a mathematically inclined person could whip up a distribution sheet for the likely hood statistically to get each amount from 4 to 24

    9. Matt Fleming Creator on

      Nice suggestions, team!

      Good idea to consider using a generator (Edwin), doing it digitally (Raphael), and also livestreaming it (Terek). Great resource (Abnorash).

      So this is what I am thinking: using Dicelog for all Random rolls, and putting the results online (or emailing it out) if folks want to cross reference their results and how many dice they got in the mail. For the Random Roll I, I will then re-roll all scores of 7 or less using Doublesixes and dice towers, all livestreamed.

      Appealing idea to me at the moment.

    10. Abhorash on

      Hi Matt,

      May I suggest the use of this website? http://dicelog.com/dice
      My gaming group and I use it when we need to roll dice for certain things in our campaigns in between game sessions. It sends an email with the roll at the moment it rolls for you, so it would be fair for all, and nobody can complain about it.

    11. enn.in.me on

      I'm also not worried about you doing this unfairly. Once you have 10,000 (20,000? more...) dice cluttering up your living room, I think you will be excited to send them away in as few bundles as possible.

    12. enn.in.me on

      @raphael I wasn't worried about randomness - just having to roll 4d6 a few hundred times. One second (well a few microseconds) on a computer vs. having to explained that the sprained wrist is from rolling dice. Perhaps you could just do the RRII since the RR folks will get at least 8. I suppose, though, there will be some who enjoy getting 8 knowing the roll was a 6 or something (another reason to skip the reroll). Hah - cheated the system! I do kind of like the live stream thing - perhaps you could invite ten friends over for a rolling party.

    13. Tarek Peregrina on

      Why not livestream the die rolls? It could be an interesting event

    14. "Filkertom" Tom Smith
      Superbacker
      on

      ... Naaah, no thanks. I'm getting 12 at a very fair price. I'm good. :)

    15. Matt Fleming Creator on

      Hmm...didn't read SableFox's comment when I just posted below. I may need to rethink the rerolling, which will mean more rolling, more math, more shipping, more cost.

    16. Matt Fleming Creator on

      Vince: great idea on the multiple dice towers. Maybe I can find some that were made on KS.

      Good question about the RR I: I think I will do a re-roll.

      Yes, this will be only one long ass video, single shot, so no way i am going to redo it. I am making for that person who gets 4 dice in the mail and thinks I screwed him. He will follow my link to the Youtube video, and notice from the spreadsheet that his roll is around minute 96, he will jump to that point, see me read out his initials, then roll a 4.

      Then he will curse fate, me, and himself for not going with the STANDARD tier.

    17. SableFox
      Superbacker
      on

      @Heyvince - rerolling rolls below 8 will end up with a higher average than setting all rolls below 8 to be 8.

    18. heyvince on

      Hey Matt!

      I like the video idea. U have a question about the first random tier (8 minimum). What's the protocol when you roll less than 8? Are you going to re-roll? Or will you increase the total to 8? I suggest you re-roll. It'll be a good way to make sure your average doesn't skew to low.

      I also suggest using a dice tower. Chucking dice hundreds of times seems like it'll be exhausting. Using a dice tower will also make the video work easier, since the dice won't fly everywhere. If you had more than one dice tower you could also roll multiple pledges at once.

      My thoughts.

    19. Raphael
      Superbacker
      on

      @Edwin He can just use the dice he sells. If the distribution does not come out nicely (distribution test, go!) he should destroy the whole batch and start over. That is to say that random.org should not give better results than rolling dice.

    20. Green Monster
      Superbacker
      on

      It doesn't matter if you video it...you can do multiple videos and pick one of your choosing as the 'random' one.

    21. Greg Wiatroski on

      While I can see the necessity, I agree with Edwin. This video will be like reviewing security camera tapes. Might I suggest some period clothing and music to add interest? =]

    22. enn.in.me on

      With the kind of support you're getting, I was thinking you'd have to switch to a random number generator! You may make one of the least interesting videos ever - it will be like an extended version of watching the lotto numbers get chosen. I expect it will go viral within days....
      Cheers!