What if there is a trend that practically no one knows about, yet it once had an impact on everyone in the United States? As unbelievable as it sounds, this is the case. This unique trend has existed in the US voting electorate and has gone unnoticed...until now. Because this major occurrence seems to remain unknown and may give insight to the upcoming 2016 presidential election (select 2016 election projections included), it deserves some type of literary focus and debate. Tony Fairfax, a demographic consultant and engineer, writes about this unique voting pattern that he has discovered, in his upcoming book, The Presidential Trend.
What is The Presidential Trend?
To begin, the trend was first discovered reviewing U.S. Census Bureau data reports. The specific report that led to the discovery was the Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001. The specific graph that revealed the trend was on page 232 of the report. See the figure below to view a copy of the report page (click here to review the actual report).
Source: U.S. Statistical Abstract, Votes Cast for President, 2001 (pg 232)
At first glance you may not have seen the Trend. Some patterns reveal themselves when you remove some irrelevant data. Take a look at the same graph below with the Republican and Independent candidate's votes removed.
2001 (pg 232) Source: U.S. Statistical Abstract, Votes Cast for President (Dem Only), 2001 (pg 232)
The popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President, increased in a "linear" fashion from 1972 to 2000. The exception was the election of 1976. The election of 1976 was simply an "outlier" or in other words an anomaly. Outliers are routinely discarded when analyzing a trend. Look at one more graph that removes the 1976 election.
Source: U.S. Statistical Abstract, Votes Cast for President (Dem Only w/o 1976), 2001 (pg 232)
Removing the 1976 election clearly reveals the complete linear trend. It has existed in plain sight for the past few decades yet no one practically noticed. Nonetheless, the trend has been defined.The Presidential Trend is a voting phenomenon whereby the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president increased in a "linear," straight-line, and predictable manner from 1972 to 2000. In fact, the trend was so straight and predictable that the popular vote of the Democratic candidates, for the elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000, could have all been determined in 1988 using the previous electionswith an accuracy of 99% or better.
The trend continued for almost 30 consecutive years, with the exception of that one presidential election. During that same period of time, the votes for the Republican and Independent candidates fluctuated up and down. This extraordinary voting pattern has never existed before or since in US election history.
This uncommonly linear pattern, which is depicted in this new graph below, was the launching point for the book. The book addresses the essential question of “Why does the Democratic popular vote increase in a linear pattern while the votes for the Republican and Independent candidates' fluctuate?" This initial question is used to develop a theory on the trend's creation and its effects. This new political theory, which took over ten years to develop, is positioned to alter the way presidential elections are viewed for many years to come.
Instead of writing a purely academic publication ("only" filled with statistics and data jargon), this book includes a first section that is intentionally written so that the general public can read, understand, and appreciate the significance of the occurrence. In addition, the first chapter of the first section summarizes the entire trend theory and attempts to take the reader through the same journey that the author went through when uncovering this unique trend - without the technical jargon.
However, the book also includes other chapters that contain detailed analysis of the trend that is specifically designed for the more seasoned analyst or astute college student. From regression analysis of the trend to analysis of exit poll data, the book covers a wide spectrum of inquiry. Consequently, the book is written for everyone...from novice to expert.
The book asks and addresses several critical questions such as: 1) when does the trend begin?; 2) why does the popular vote become linear?; 3) what does demographics reveal about the trend?; and 4) does the trend exist at other geographic levels such as state or county?
The author also asks and answers several additional questions pertaining to after the trend ends, including: 1) what occurs after the trend ends?; and 2) does the trend’s past predictability give insight to future elections, including the 2016 election? The final chapters of the book show analysis by utilizing unique aspects of the trend in order to estimate the results of past presidential elections and assist with predicting the outcome of future elections including the 2016 election.
Everyone will enjoy the book!
The book is written for just about everyone…from novice to expert. In fact, it includes a specific first section and summary chapter that does not contain the statistical analysis that is found in the other parts of the book. On the other end the spectrum, the political aficionado will appreciate the middle sections of the book that includes statistical analysis such as linear regression and exit poll analysis. Either way the book should be a good keepsake as the presidential trend theory begins to permeate throughout the country and become part of US lexicon.
Support this Project!
Finally, we need your support. We need your help to complete this book and tell this virtually unknown story to the world.
Use of the Funds
Your contribution will help cover the costs of final production of the book as well as providing resources to spread the word about this unique and virtually unknown trend. If we exceed our goals we will be able to cast a larger net and setup several pilot test projects in colleges as well as market to an even larger amount of individuals. Finally, the funds will be used to fulfill the books and other items to you.
Your support will not only assist in launching a new and dynamic book, you will also help launch a new independent publishing entity. The Presidential Trend is the maiden publication of Statistical Press. The imprint is planning to focus on data centered publications that are both entertaining and informative. The company's belief is that understanding and analyzing data does not have to be boring...if presented properly, it can be fun and entertaining for everyone.
In addition to the book, you can also support us by obtaining one of our branded products.
The Hardbound Book
The Presidential Trend Coffee Mug Options (Versions 1 & 2)
The Presidential Trend T-Shirt
The Presidential Trend graph used in the 16 inch by 20 inch Picture Frame (version 1)
Why use Kickstarter?
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Risks and challenges
With only the final touches needed, the risks of completing the book are minimum and revolve mostly around printing and distribution. However, as any business owner knows, there are always unforeseen challenges. Weather disasters, vendor closings or interruptions, and of course personal family illnesses and problems can always randomly occur and challenge every business project.Learn about accountability on Kickstarter
- (31 days)