Use this space to cheer the creator along, ask questions, and talk to your fellow backers. Please remember to be respectful and considerate. Thanks!
I think it's been established with a high degree of confidence that yes, you are a bully, who resorts to insults when you fail to get your own way.
@Oldschool Shadowrunner: Back to your old tricks of dismissing anyone who combats your propaganda as employees of Frontier huh? *Rolls eyes*
@Michael Taylor - You can't expect an objective posts from anyone in FD camp, especially their employees. They got a LOT riding on this and the company is not doing well. They got to create a lot of hype at the Gamescom to draw more investors if there is going to be a future for E.D. Even the hardcore elite fanatics agree that the game is shallow and empty.
@El_tel - in one hand you are using colorful words like "bullying" and in the other you complaining about colorful words like 'dying', 'hype'. Really?
You're absolutely correct. Posting objective counterpoints is almost force of habit from a time when there was Theta Sigma and a couple of dozen of ex-backers posting endless conjecture.
Really good to see this E:D micro-community getting back to something resembling the good old days %^]
@Theta Sigma -
"...except I presented _both_ sets of data and explained the pitfalls with both
Note: both sets of data have the same source, they're not two different sources, saucy ;)"
...except the post I was talking about was the last two weeks worth of "Changes of Owners" information you posted and you didn't make any mention *at all* about its veracity in that post, or in the succeeding ones - you did mention the margin of error for "Owners" but not for "Changes" - until I made mention of it.
I found it odd that you were presenting data that just over a week and a half previously you'd been using the inaccuracy of to discredit other's conjectures. I'm pleased that we now know that the data from the last fortnights "Changes of Owners" source should be treated with a large pinch of NaCl; makes the fowl sauce taste better.
It should be apparent to anyone reading these comments that Oldschool Shadowrunner et al knowingly take the worst possible interpretation of these figures and present them as fact.
They don't even attempt to appear objective when doing so, using colourful words like 'dying', 'hype' etc, and attempting to bully anyone who dares disagree so they will go away stop posting counterpoints.
Any reader with even an ounce of sense can see straight through it.
...and in the interests of complete objectivity, let me apply the correct rules for error propagation when subtracting numbers with margins of error:
All data and error margins direct from SteamSpy
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
After: 199,945 ±6,270
Before: 147,325 ±5,880
Increase: 52,620 ±12,150
(remember, we need to _add_ the error margins, not _subtract_ them :)
40,470 < units shifted during sale period < 64,770
Unit Sales were almost certainly greater than 40,470 (and potentially as high as 64,770)
@Michael Taylor @deusx_ophc @Harbinger @el_tel
OS: "...the obvious truth that Elite Dangerous sales are dying, except when FD takes a massive financial hit to discount the game."
Serious Question: Did Frontier take _actually_ take a "massive financial hit" when the game was discounted?
(...or is the statement just more guesswork, conjecture and hyperbole?)
There were some fairly in-depth discussions on here recently about the reality of discounting a game.
Here's some more of that reality:
(...in the interests of being careful about sources, these stats are straight from SteamSpy, completely untouched)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Results from 'Steam Summer Sale' are available on SteamSpy
Sale Period: 12th June -> 22nd June [11 days inclusive]
In terms of revenue during the Sale Period, E:D finished #6 / 1050
Let me repeat that: 6th out of 1050 games
Revenue: [$2,367,374 ~ £1,515,119] in 11 days...
Unit sales _up_ 35% during the sale period
Max discount during the sale period 25%
(...almost half of the sale was at only 10% discount)
Frontier, therefore did not "take a massive financial hit."
Objectively, and independently-reported, their revenue increased over and above what it would had they not had the sale.
Remember also that SteamKey redemptions take no part in the "35% increase" as (almost two months after "SteamKey Release Day") redemptions would likely remain at the normal day-to-day baseline and be completely unaffected by a sale-period since there is no advantage whatsoever to redeeming a SteamKey during a sale-period:
@Theta Sigma - yeah lots of excitment about numbers yesterday. imo those numbers are better left to cook a little more.
it is just that people take personal dissapoinment and coin it into failure of a project that they have zero bearing on. and the same can be said for people that are overjoyed with a project and its development and thus defend the people behind it against all odds but without reason.
so from my perspective your (and others) voice of reason is indeed much needed =)
shall report back from gamescon on thursday.
re. morfa nefyn - ahh now that is pub is now pencilled in for our next trip to cymru. thanks!
Hey @deusx_ophc, quite a day in these long-forgotten comments yesterday %^]
Cheers for the comments very much appreciated - for months I've been methodically presenting the objective evidence seemingly as the "lone voice of reason" - Harbinger's words (Thanks @Harbinger) Good to have other voices of reason speaking up again.
BTW I hope you have a great time at Gamescom.
RE: Morfa Nefyn - not a local, but used to holiday there - about time for a return to the Ty Coch Inn, I reckon :)
well the talk about shares, investors and boom & bust doesn't stop does it.
yet the fact remains, there are no significant volumes of FDEV shares available. the vast majority is with DB, FDEV directors, staff and a few outside institutionals.
try and buy (or sell if you hold positions) even tiny volumes like 10k shares at current price in one lot. no chance.
this is just not a typical short-mid term investors stock. the flotation basically allowed FDEV to collect some intermediate cash to fund their business transformation. it will also make long term staff quite a bit of money if they keep on the game.
just look at their last fundamentals, solid stuff and their current plan looks on track, too.
once we have cooled down from the gamescon announcement, FDEV results should be reported in early september. let's see who is still here then ^^
"there may now be a degree of a stalemate" etc.
My assessment of your posts:
...because the objective, continuing success of Elite:Dangerous is becoming increasingly difficult for ex-backers to deny with any degree of plausibility, most especially due to the fact that almost every negative prediction made by ex-backers has utterly failed to transpire despite their best efforts to spread their agenda following the offline decision to the overwhelming majority of the rest of this supportive and growing community.
"How many people do you think worked on those charts that TS spits out every day?"
That'll be the freely available SteamSpy Owners data, scraped into a spreadsheet, with SteamSpy margins error of included as explicit error bars, and some explanatory text added,
Took a couple of minutes for each chart, feel free to check, mate %^]
@Avalanche - I'm doing good brother... smoking cigars, drinking scotch, and planning a trip to hunt some wild boar next month. What about you?
Good post... you are just missing the part how our lives don't change if FD makes billions or goes under. Employes and players will be **** out of luck, but hopefully it doesn't happen for sake of Theta Sigma. It would be crappy for him/her/or group of them to be out of a job. How many people do you think worked on those charts that TS spits out every day? You think they would have focused on fixing the bugs instead? G'night man!
A post all to itself is the issue that frontier developments made the "creative decision" to remove offline mode and added DRM, against promises and actual rewards, yet they didn't discuss it with Backers or even hint at it. They made a unilateral decision, then refused to give people their money back.
They just slipped it vaguely into update #49, without discussion, 22 months after the Kickstarter, but just one month before the actual release. They said they knew about it earlier, but didn't say anything, yet they still took people's money for the beta, then when people asked for their money back, they said that people had already downloaded the game and weren't eligible. Eventually they semi capitulated to pressure, but still only offered partial refunds wherever they could get away with it, created rules about hours played, but never gave the *actual* criteria despite *many* requests and hid behind the Terms and Conditions.
Beta players were playing an even more incomplete version of the game than now and helped test the game. Some playing under the promise that they would get the full game playable offline, but despite paying early, they had to fight to get a refund, which many didn't get.
Are. You. Kidding. Me.
you're = your :o)
@ Oldschool Shadowrunner
I admire you're persistence here :o) but there may now be a degree of a stalemate when way back along the argument was shifted away from all the stuff we said so many, *many* times about frontier developments behaviour; the promise for offline mode; the shady slipping in of the retraction of said mode; the initial lack of a proper announcement; not one Update here; the lack of answers here; the repeated questions by us about the '10 minutes per requested refund' after they said they wouldn't refund, but had to after huge pressure; the dragging out forever; getting people to send emails that often weren't replied to; then offering paltry amounts, but adding that accepting was final; the excuses; the Rock Paper Shotgun interview ( http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2015/03/12/david-braben-on-fan-anger-interview/ ); saying they put the money towards other things instead of offline mode even though they didn't discuss it with Backers; adding in a piracy reason for online only; more delays as they refused to say why they said there were few refund requests yet it was taking weeks to respond to so few people; constantly referring to Backers as investors even though that's against Kickstarter rules; made up rules about not refunding people who backed before the online announcement (something they never did respond to) and only cave when they were threatened with legal action. Some defended such actions and more, way back along, refusing to acknowledge many things, so my thoughts are that now things have moved to stats, maths and numbers :o) that no ground will be gained, as it will just go back and forth forever.
I say this as most of us here did get our money back as you know and don't post nearly as much, so there's the possibility of you just being outnumbered. I'll also say that you did more than your fair share in bringing the wrongs of frontier developments to those who wanted to listen, so I would say there is no shame at all in letting this go. Many who have made up their minds about such things will in no way be swayed and... and... wait, after everything, you can still access/play elite? That's hilarious :oD
Seriously again though, all the other stuff isn't talked about now and I don't think some people *wanted* to talk about that stuff back then (certainly not frontier developments) and are much happier now talking about the current stats stuff, as that can continue forever and get nowhere. I mean, that's what statistics do :o)
Or you can keep going :o) I have to say (again) that I've really not been following all the talk about players numbers and the like, but I still very much want to know how this will end. Whatever is happening with the stats, there's still the money thing and I have no idea how things are going there for frontier developments. I looked at your simple google link that led frontier's share price, which I hadn't looked at in a while, so I still appreciate the links. Share price sloping down = baaaaaad.
I wonder how it will all end and how long until we find out.
Oh, also... hey Oldschool, how've ya been :o)
@All - Anyone else thinks that FD has been cleaning house because they are looking for additional investors to pull them out of the impediment they are in?
@Theta Sigma - 170 days later - You are hoot, pat yourself on the back. This place would have long died out if you didn't show up. You deserve a raise!
@Harbinger - I guess you know why I am posting and I don't?
@El_Tel - There is a reason why FD is keeping an eye on kickstarter comments... there is a lot of damaging information here or at least good starting points for research. Would I, as an investor based my decision just on Kickstarter alone? No... but this would be a good starting point. No company will ever tell you that they sinking.
@Theta, Harbinger, and El_tel - Good team work boys, did I hit a nerve?
Hell hath no fury like an ex-elite fanboy scorned. Is FD a mickey mouse company? Yes. Why do I say that? Because 175 days after sending them court action paperwork and receiving a refund I still have access to the Elite Dangerous Game. They are not even capable of keeping track who has received a refund and who hasn't...
Oldschool Shadowrunner on 3rd April 2015 (...just 52 days after my first ever post)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"@Theta Sigma - Are you still at this?"
Theta Sigma on 30th July 2015:
Are _you_ *still* at this?
(...259 days after offline decision)
(...175 days after Oldschool Shadowrunner received a _full_ and _complete_refund)
Theta "still-at-this-after*only*170-days" Sigma
@Oldschool Shadowrunner: Nope, I've not misread the situation at all. You are posting here solely because of the removal of Offline mode and the subsequent delay in refunding people who were aggrieved by this. You stated as much 3 days ago:
"If FD did what they said they would do - we wouldn't be here right now.
If FD refunded money when players asked - we wouldn't be here right now."
There is nothing balanced in your arguments, it is entirely one sided and you flat out deny anything that contradicts your own arguments despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Theta Sigma is posting objective reasoning concerning ED sales figures as a counterpoint to your own rather flimsy sales figures, but I suspect you already know that :)
Ae you actually capable of being objective? Or are you so consumed by hate that it's clouding your judgement?
Do you seriously think that any investor would take what's posted here a a basis for buying/selling shares in FD?
These comments ARE entertaining though, I'll give you that.
Do, please, point out where you think I insulted someone since I stated:
"Hopefully this marks the beginning of a return to the early days of this comments section. In the spirit of mutual respect, I note also that yourself and @Oldschool Shadowrunner have ceased the unnecessary a.k.a. pseudonyms. Thank you."
...and was this insult before, or after, you stated:
"@Theta Sigma, Frontier Developments lame PR person"
"No I guess you didn't, because you're (sic.) job is to hype FD and ED to try and convince everyone out of the truth."
"@Theta Sigma a.a.k. (sic.) Frontier Developments embarrassingly incompetent PR man"
"a.k.a. Frontier Developments PR man (though not for much longer if he doesn't start doing a better job)"
"Conclusion: Theta Sigma a.k.a Frontier Development's PR man is running out of source material from which to fabricate evidence"
Pretty sure that's at least 5 insults and/or examples of disrespectful and inconsiderate posting, right there, in just one day since I said 'Thank You' when it appeared that you'd ceased such behaviour.
At least one other poster on here has referred to these "a.k.a." references as "derogatory" so I'm pretty certain I'm not just imagining your hard-to-conceal contempt of the house rules.
@Theta Sigma - I got to ask - What is the story with all the sales hype? Is FD looking for additional investors? Is this the reason why information has been removed and FD is in a process of getting things cleaned up? It does make everything look peachy...happy joy-joy!
Personally, I don't think this is going to fly, any investor worth his/her name will do their do diligence and check everything including a comments section of Kickstarter. Uuuuuhhhhh... are they in for a surprise! I just can't see someone investing their money after reading this circus.
@Harbinger - I think you misread the situation at hand. I believe people are posting here not because they are upset with FD but because they feel the need to show all sides of Elite and not just FD propaganda. There is more then enough of bad/good - good/bad reviews online for people to read before purchasing.
@Theta Sigma - Didn't take long for you to fall back on insulting people I see. If you continue I will start reporting you.
@Michael Taylor @All
How about another perspective:
Concrete example of why pessimists/statistical novices might be wrong...
(...when they rush to conclusions surrounding transient data/figures with margins of error that are large compared to daily unit differences)
Note: all data comparisons taken during a non-Sale-Period
[23rd June 2015 to 8th July 2015, inclusive]
...except I presented _both_ sets of data and explained the pitfalls with both
Note: both sets of data have the same source, they're not two different sources, saucy ;)
@Theta Sigma - you may have missed the point of:
"ah right, ignore all "changes" data for at least a fortnight. I'll do that then."
...which was about your earlier post that had just presented a fortnight's worth of data ;)
I'm suggesting that you should be "more careful" using a data source that you'd tried 11 days earlier to discredit as being inaccurate when Mr O-S used it. Sauce for the goose...
I tend to agree. This whole circular debate of statistical analysis and objective facts smacks of climate change denial.
Not sure what you mean exactly?
"@Theta Sigma - ah right, ignore all "changes" data for at least a fortnight. I'll do that then."
My last post to you (and 'All') was to clarify why the "at least a fortnight" is a sensible idea.
Are you suggesting I should be "more careful" than using SteamSpy data?
@Theta Sigma: "Cheers. I think all of the descriptions may be valid though?"
Yeah I understood it perfectly and no doubt Oldschool Shadowrunner does also but the 749 figure just works better for his propaganda purposes. If you were to use his same last 7 days methodology against him when it bounces back in a few days time he'll point back to our statements that it's not valid to use that method.
In other words this method will only ever be valid at such times as he is using it in an argument.
@Theta Sigma - firstly, I didn't ask that question, secondly I hope you'll be more careful in future as to what data sources you use to back up your points (or at least include a disclaimer as to their accuracy;))
Cheers. I think all of the descriptions may be valid though?
If the earlier figure was (in reality) at the lower end of its range, and the later figure was (in reality) at the upper end of its range there could, potentially have been an increase of 24,768 over that period.
Similarly, as I had been stating all day (and OS arrived at rather late to the party) the converse is true and there could, potentially have been a decrease of around 23,000 over the same period.
As you say, also, it's a ±12,384 *range* with 263,295 possible "owners" at its centre.
All of the above, however, highlights why it's unwise to simply state 749 as though that tells the whole story, as it quite clearly doesn't tell the whole story.
@Oldschool Shadowrunner: ""Increase potentially +24,768" Hey, [snipped derogatory reference], did you forget to point out that the potential DECREASE is about the same."
Looks to be a simple case of mislabeling, it's not an "increase" of 24,768. It's a ±12,384 *range* with 263,295 possible "owners" at it's centre.
"Why is it prudent to wait two weeks before making conclusions about transient data?"
I hope that's of some use
The problem with the SteamSpy error bounds is that if a game is adding ~1,200 units per day, and yet the error bound is ±12,000 on each day's figure, then one might potentially have to wait ~20 days to be _certain_ of any definite positive or negative change:
2 x 12,000 = 24,000
24,000 / 1,200 = 20 days
"did you forget to point out that the potential DECREASE is about the same?"
Pretty much been saying that to you all day:
Theta Sigma about 1 hour ago
Once again, I agree with you:
749 ± 23,939"
Theta Sigma about 2 hours ago
"In fact, applying statistical mathematics correctly, the answer is actually:
749 ± 23,939"
Theta Sigma about 5 hours ago
"So, from the margin of error, we can glean the change in owners, C, between 23rd July and 29th July was:
-23,215 < C < 24,713
So, being completely objective about this, the Owners have either reduced by 23K or increased by 24K"
Theta Sigma about 10 hours ago
263,680 - 11,999 = 251,681 [lower bound of 29-7 figure]
263,680 + 11,999 = 275,679 [upper bound of 29-7 figure]"
Theta Sigma about 11 hours ago
"SteamSpy reports these bounds as the algorithms cannot give a precise figure."
The above evidence makes me wonder whether you read any of the above posts?
PS Please desist with the personal comments and baseless conjecture for my motive. Casting aspersions on my motive for posting objective facts somewhat removes credibility from your posts. Please address the facts of the matter rather than resorting to these personal jibes.
@Theta Sigma, Frontier Developments lame PR person
"Increase potentially +24,768" Hey, FD PR man, did you forget to point out that the potential DECREASE is about the same, and the MIDLINE figure shows FD sold only about 749 units in the last week?
No I guess you didn't, because you're job is to hype FD and ED to try and convince everyone out of the truth. The truth being the actual sales figures show ED Steam sales are dying fast.
All data from SteamSpy
Error-bars included to demonstrate their importance when interpreting data with associated margins of error:
Don't shoot the messenger.
I don't make up the rules of statistical mathematics (...but I do, at least, apply them correctly and consistently)
@Theta Sigma a.a.k. Frontier Developments embarrassingly incompetent PR man
"So, in the example in which you state 749, you fail to report the _associated uncertainty_ in the calculated value." How stupid do you think people here are??? The proportional uncertainty is exactly the same as all these steamspy figures, INCLUDING the ones you have quoted dozens of times in your attempts to make ED sales look good ALSO without specifically stating the uncertainty.
Next you'll be telling us the falling FD share price has an uncertainly, so no-one should take any notice of "transient changes" until "after they have had time to settle"... right up until the time the share price tanks completely and FD is delisted from the stock exchange.
Once again, I agree with you:
749 ± 23,939
@Harbinger "picking a couple of random reviews of a niche game from the Internet" Uh, where else do you expect us find reviews of this niche game? If you can find any better reviews of ED on Xbox, spread the good news!
"I expect their sales on the Xbox One are soon to get a boost being that they're currently awaiting the CQC update going live: " That assumes FDs update doesn't break the game as badly as did the last one. And that Microsoft's patience for letting FD push out bug-addled crap on Microsoft store holds out.
"Your 749 figure is simply derived from subtracting the 23rd July value from the 29th July value _as if these are absolute values_"
"No I didn't. I subtracted them AS IF THEY HAD THE SAME MARGIN OF ERROR, which they do."
Please don't be offended by the following observation, but your use of ALL-CAPS and reliance/insistence on the value of 749 as if it is somehow absolute and definite leads to the inescapable conclusion that you don't really understand at all how margins of error are propagated when performing calculations such as additions and subtractions.
"When two (or more) numbers are subject to uncertainties or margins of error, when adding or subtracting these numbers the uncertainties in each number are added together."
So, in the example in which you state 749, you fail to report the _associated uncertainty_ in the calculated value.
In fact, applying statistical mathematics correctly, the answer is actually:
So, yes, you are right that the "answer" is 749
But in this case, the "answer" is almost meaningless since the associated error means that the "real" value could, in all probability, be as low as -23,910 or as high as 24,688
Like I said, please don't be offended by this observation:
Statistics is a tricky subject and not particularly well understood by the lay-person.
Many people believe that when subtracting numbers with associated margins of error that the margins of error are also subtracted from each other. In fact, they are not: Whether adding or subtracting the margins of error are _always_ added.
It's actually an example of a classic statistics exam question to reveal which students didn't do their homework.
Please see the following links for clarification of how the mathematics of this works:
@Oldschool Shadowrunner: Nobody knows what they're earning from the Xbox One version but picking a couple of random reviews of a niche game from the Internet is hardly going to answer this question for us. I expect their sales on the Xbox One are soon to get a boost being that they're currently awaiting the CQC update going live:
"For Xbox One players we are currently in the submission process for the next GPP release. This will include CQC Championship as well as a host of fixes to the main game including various stability and performance issues. A change log will be posted on our forums once the updated GPP build is available"
FD share price continuing to fall, now down to 198p https://www.google.co.uk/webhp… from 306p on the day FD was supposed to ship the game they promised to KS backers but never did.
@Harbinger They can't be earning much from the Xbox version. Its a wreck. Thay have left it mostly broken and unplayable for the last month. And not to mention the players who can't to get past the broken sign-up http://www.mweb.co.za/games/view/tabid/4210/Article/20430/Give-the-Elite-Dangerous-Preview-on-Xbox-One-a-skip.aspx Even the best press reviews say "I'm finding it hard to recommend in its current incarnation." http://www.windowscentral.com/xbox-one-game-preview-what-elite-dangerous
Scholarly reading for those interested in the actual facts about margins of errors, uncertainties and how these affect error propagation when performing calculations with numbers subject to margins of error:
I think the word of the day should be 'obtuse'
Or maybe word of the year.
And remember that these are only the Steam sales of ED (they don't include direct sales)
@Oldschool Shadowrunner: The £192K estimate is based *solely on the last 16 days* with a +/- variance of 11,999 units on the most recent figure and as it's already dropped 12,444 units over the last 2 days it's pretty much a given that it's not going to go down further in the next few days. If anything it'll probably bounce back higher than it was 3 days ago in the coming days.
If you look at their entire history on Steam they average over £320K per week overall. I think you'll find that nicely covers the estimated £1m per month running costs and also adds some profit. On top of that they have Xbox One GPP sales of Elite: Dangerous, Micro transactions and also royalties from their previous titles all adding to the pot.
Much as you love to deny the existence of these other income streams as they're inconvenient to your arguments they actually do exist.
Sorry, I mean "£192K per week is way short of the quarter of a million pounds a WEEK that Frontier needs".
" £192,659.02 per week. I'm sure the lights will be going out at Frontier any moment now."
£192K per week is way short of the quarter of a million pounds a month that Frontier needs just to keep itself alive. What do you suppose is going to make up the shortfall and keep the lights on? Braben can hardly expect the shareholders to give him more money after the scams he's pulled on them already. The falling FD share price says everything about what they think of him.
As we type, Braben is undoubtedly doing a whip-round with a hat (and a torch) collecting 50p for the meter.