Help Prove Me Wrong about Orison!

by josh levine

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josh levineBy josh levine
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josh levineBy josh levine
First created
$0
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About

I am Josh. Am I wrong about the new Orison home power unit?

I don't think that the campaign for the Orison home power unit that recently showed up on Kickstarter will be able to ship their product as promised.

I need you to help prove me wrong!

Here is how it works:

  • You back my "Prove Josh Wrong" campaign
  • If I am wrong and the Orison actually ships as promised, then you get your sweet perk and the right to tell everyone that you proved Josh wrong!

Why?

I hate to see people lose money on crowd funded products that I am (almost) sure will never ship. I try to convince people not to back these projects, but people (backers and creators) get understandably excited over great ideas and no one wants to hear about the boring and messy details that might get in the way.

So I am not going to try to explain the many reasons why I think Orison will never ship the promised product. Instead, I am just inviting you to prove me wrong by backing this campaign.

Ship or not- no matter how things turn out-  everyone benefits!

What am I so wrong about?

I don't think Orison will be able to deliver on these specific promises: 

(all quoted from the Orison Kickstarter campaign page)

  • Estimated delivery: Aug 2016
  • Power: 1.8kW continuous, Current: 15 amps
  • Simply plug it in like you would any other appliance, and you’re done. 
  • Orison will automatically store energy when utility rates are low, and then use that energy to power your home or business when rates are high.
  • UL certification

I want to be wrong about this, so I am giving you (and Orison) plenty of leeway on each promise. Specifically, all they have to do to make me wrong is...

  • The product must ship before August 2017.

The estimated ship date is August 2016, so even if they are a full year late, that's still OK.

  • The shipped product must capable of feeding either 7.5 amps or 0.9kW back into the outlet under normal use conditions.

Their spec sheet shows the Orison unit will be capable of supplying 1.8kW of continuous power and 15 amps of current. Even if they are only able deliver on just 50% of either one of the promised ratings, that's still OK.

  • The electrical installation procedure for the shipped product must consist solely of plugging it into any household US outlet.

They claim that you can plug the unit in and be done, so there should be no other electrical installation required. Of course there can be other non-electrical installation steps that involve stuff like unpacking, assembly, and configuring Wifi, and that's OK by me.

  • The shipped product must be able to supply power to at least one load that is plugged into a wall outlet.

They claim that the Orison will supply power to your home (or office), but if it can supply power to even just a single wall outlet, that's good enough for me. 

  • The shipped product must be UL certified.

I'm not picky about which certifications they get, if it is good (safe) enough for UL to allow them to put a mark on it and sell it to consumers in the USA, then it is good enough for me!

That's it! If they ship a product within a year of the promised date that supplies the house wiring with at least 50% of the promised output, is plug-and-play, and has a valid UL certification... then I am wrong!

Why am I so sure that Orison will never ship?

Read some of my articles...

Not another fake grid-tie solar system

Read this before you contribute to an Indiegogo campaign 

Kickstarter On Track project management feature

No bad guys here

I've never met the Orison folks and have nothing against them personally. From the videos they seem like nice and smart guys. I do not doubt their desire to to have a positive impact on their customers and the world. It's quite possible they've come up with innovative solutions to specific problems that I've never even dreamed of. 

Unfortunately, based on my experience I think it is very unlikely that Orison will be able to achieve their product goals. I hate to see these projects fail. It makes me sad, it makes the backers sad, and it usually makes the creators saddest of all. 

Hopefully my "wrong" campaign will start a conversation about ways we can evolve the crowdfunding platforms to help people turn great ideas into great products, rather than setting them up to crash and burn. It might also save a few potential Orison backers from disappointment.

...and for the record, I was a Super Early Bird backer of the Orison campaign and I am rooting for them all the way. I honestly and truly would love to be proven wrong!

Risks and challenges

Of course, the biggest risk here is that I am right and Orison will not be able to ship their product as promised. In this case you get nothing. If you think there is a reasonable chance that I am right then you should not back my campaign (and you should not back the Orison campaign either).

There is also the risk that I turn out to be wrong, but I am unable to make or ship the perks when the time comes. You just have to trust me on this one. Nothing would make me happier to send out all the perks. It might make you feel better to know that I have been around at josh.com for more than 20 years so at least you'll know where to come looking if I stand you up!

Finally there is the risk that Kickstarter will pull this campaign. In this case, you will get a full refund of your pledge money but you will be left with an unbearable feeling of dissatisfaction.

Learn about accountability on Kickstarter

Questions about this project? Check out the FAQ

Support

  1. Select this reward

    Pledge $1 or more About $1.00

    A big thank you!

    You get nothing except the smug satisfaction of knowing that you helped prove me wrong!

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  2. Select this reward

    Pledge $5 or more About $5

    A contrite email.

    If I am wrong, I will send you a hand crafted email telling you about how miserably wrong I was.

    You can archive this email and then pull it up again anytime you are feeling blue.

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  3. Select this reward

    Pledge $10 or more About $10

    A contrite post card.

    If I am wrong, I will mail you a personalized and hand signed post card telling you about how miserably wrong I was.

    You can frame this post card and hang it above your bed. A great bedroom conversation starter to be sure!

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  4. Select this reward

    Pledge $50 or more About $50

    Show me the (signed) money!

    If I am wrong, I will mail you a crisp, hand signed (in red Sharpie) Franklin with the message "You were so right and I was so wrong!". This priceless work of art is absolutely guaranteed to appraise for at least $100.

    I'll let you work out the math here, but if I am wrong then you will have reason to be extra pleased with yourself.

    Suitable for framing and sure to be a keepsake you'll want to hand down to your grandchildren (or leave as a tip for the barista at your neighborhood Starbucks)!

    Only available to USPS Priority Mail valid addresses

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